Continuing to dig into the 2018 Civil Rights Data Collection, here are the Virginia division percentages of first-year teachers.

Richmond is the gold bar at 18.3%. The blue bar is Buena Vista is at 5.8%, which also is the state average. Richmond is 3.2 times the state average.

The red bars are the peer cities, from the left Newport News (7%), Hampton (7.9%), and Norfolk (11%).

The second-year percentages of full time teachers paint quite a different picture.

The average is 5%. Four divisions straddle that value: Alleghany and Alexandria at 4.9%; Stafford and Montgomery at 5.1%. The blue bar is on the first of the 5.1% divisions.

The maximum datum there is Sussex, which is off scale at 40.7%; the county went from 9 first-year to 43 second-year (out of 103.24 total; I’d be interested to meet that 0.24 teacher).

Richmond drops to 3.1% (from the first-year value of 18.3%). The implication is heavy hiring of first-year teachers, most of whom quit or go to a nearby division after that year.

The peer cities from the left are Newport News (4.7%), Hampton (6.5%), and Norfolk (7.1%).

In the ordinary course, we might expect the second-year numbers to be a bit lower than the first-year to reflect teachers who move to another division or quit the profession. The actual picture is more complicated:

Note: These second-year data are from 2018, as are the first-year, so the difference is meaningful only to the extent that hiring was about the same in both 2017-8 and 2016-7.

Richmond here is second from the highest: 15.2% difference.

The state average is 0.8%, *i.e.*, most of the first-year teachers hired the previous year staying for a second year (or being replaced by new 2d-year hires). These data show some huge differences from that value, however.

At the negative end (*i.e.*, divisions where there are __more__ second- than first-year teachers), the leader is Sussex, off scale at –32%. Essex is next at a much less extravagant –6.3%. The hopeful explanation for these cases is large numbers of first year hires the previous year, most of whom stayed for a second year.

Indeed, many of these differences probably are the result of year-to-year variations in hiring patterns. For example, the Richmond data from the previous (2016) CRDC show large numbers for both first- and second-year teacher populations but a difference that, while large, was much closer to the state average than in 2018.

As a benchmark: If all teachers were hired in their first year and all retired after thirty, the first-year/second-year difference would be zero, with both populations 3.3%. The Richmond first-year numbers were 4.7 times that in 2016 and 5.5 times in 2018.

We could wish for more data, but we’re stuck with what the Feds have collected here. Those numbers nonetheless show a whole lot of first-year teachers in Richmond, and suggest a very large attrition rate of those first-year hires.