The VDOE has 4-Year cohort graduation data going back to 2008. Here are the graduation rates for Richmond and the state.

BTW: These are the actual rates, *i.e.*, advanced + standard diplomas (aka the federal graduation indicator), not VDOE’s inflated “on time” numbers.

In terms of 2016 numbers, 443 of the 1472 members of Richmond’s cohort did not receive diplomas.

Excel was glad to ~~fit~~ provide linear least squares fits to the data. Those show the state rate improving by 1.2% per year over the period of the data and Richmond by 1.86%. At those rates, Richmond would reach a 100% rate in 2031 and would catch the state in 2041.

Of course that extrapolation is absurd. The extrapolated 2041 graduation rates are 118%. This being the real world, the rates of increase will decrease as the pass rates approach the 100% ceiling. Indeed, that slowing may already show in the state data.

The point of the extrapolation is not at all absurd, however: It provides a measure of the dreadful job RPS is doing.

On the subject of “dreadful,” statewide there were 1.44 advanced diplomas per standard diploma in the 4-year cohort graduating in ‘16. In Richmond, that ratio was 0.63.

Your tax dollars at “work.”